
Adaptive Optics (SCAO) aims to obtain the best performances over a limited portion of the sky. If the target
is near to the guide star (on-axis case), the shape of the PSF depends only on the integrated turbulence pa-
rameters (i.e. seeing, τ0...), however in the off-axis case, where the guide star is separated from the target, the
PSF is impacted by the vertical structure of the turbulence (C2
Nprofile) and the wind speed. This is even more
important for the Wide Field AO case (WFAO), where the correction is applied to a large portion of the sky. In
any case the knowledge of the PSF attainable in specific conditions is fundamental to correctly match the AO
facility and the scientific program to the best atmospheric conditions.
The knowledge (in advance) of the OT can finally help in planning telescope observations and tuning the AO
instruments for better performance [1,2].
Knowledge in advance of the atmospheric turbulence is possible only with a forecast model, which is also
able to provide the full C2
Nstratification. Since such topic is of paramount importance and have such a deep
impact on ground-based observations, in recent years many telescopes, with top-class AO facilities, expressed
interest in having a forecast tool for OT. Specifically, the usage of dedicated atmospheric models to forecast
the atmospheric turbulence had a significant growth in the last decade, with more and more large telescope
installations adopting such tools. Mauna Kea (KECK telescope) already had a forecast system for OT∗. The
Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) followed with the ALTA project†. The latter uses an advanced dedicated
system for forecasting OT using a high-accuracy mesoscale atmospheric model (Astro-Meso-NH, [4]), which has
been proven to provide reliable forecasts of atmospheric parameters [3] as well as the seeing [2] above the LBT
site. Now also the ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT) is planning to adopt a similar system during the course
of next year which could potentially have a huge impact on the astronomy community due to the importance of
the AO facilities at VLT and the huge scientific output of the telescope [5,6].
Recently it has been proven that, using an autoregression technique, it is possible to forecast the seeing with
performances (RMSE) at short time scale (1h) of the order of 0.1” [2,5] . Such a value is better than the intrinsic
uncertainty of measurements and this guarantees us to be able to achieve forecast of the optical turbulence with
a sufficiently good accuracy.
In this paper we want to dedicate our attention on the possibility to forecast a few features of the PSF
obtained by AO systems. AO performance depends mainly on the OT and atmospheric conditions, the charac-
teristics of the observed target (magnitude M) and on the fine tuning of the optical and control-loop parameters
to the matching conditions. Each AO instrument is different and have different specifications, however by joining
in succession, a forecast system of the atmospheric and turbulence conditions with an AO simulation software
that is able to simulate the performance of the optics and the control loop of the AO system, it is conceivable to
provide a prediction of the AO performance for each specific observed target and atmospheric condition. This
could provide an invaluable tool for the telescope operator that could carefully plan the observation to match
the best possible conditions and achieve the level of performance required, thus boosting the scientific output of
the telescope.
In the present paper we will limit ourselves to the study of the Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM) and
Strehl Ration (SR), which are the principal numbers that characterize the goodness of the PSF corrected by the
AO and the attainable performance on an observed target. We might envisage in the future to include other
parameters such as the encircle energy or the contrast.
In the present paper we will provide an update to the results previously shown in [7], in order to characterize
and potentially evaluate the feasibility of such a forecast system for FWHM and SR for few of the best AO
systems currently available. SOUL at the LBT and SAXO (the AO instrument working with the planet finder
SPHERE) at the VLT. OT predictions can also provide detailed high-accuracy profiles for the stratification of
the turbulence (C2
Nprofiles), which could have a huge impact for off-axis predictions. However, since this is
a preliminary feasibility study, in the present paper, we will limit ourselves to the on-axis case which can be
typically characterized using only the integrated seeing parameter (the seeing is the integral of the C2
Nalong the
∗http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/
†http://alta.arcetri.inaf.it/