A White Paper Submitted to Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics Heliophysics SSPH 2024 -2033 Seismic Monitoring of the Suns Far Hemisphere A Crucial Component in Future Space Weather Forecasting

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A White Paper Submitted to Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) – SSPH 2024-2033

Seismic Monitoring of the Sun’s Far Hemisphere:

A Crucial Component in Future Space Weather Forecasting

Principal Author: Kiran Jain

National Solar Observatory, 3665 Discovery Dr., Boulder, CO 80303, USA

Co-authors: C. Lindsey1, E. Adamson2, C. N. Arge3, T. E. Berger4, D. C. Braun1,

R. Chen5, Y. M. Collado-Vega3, M. Dikpati6, T. Felipe7, C. J. Henney8, J. T. Hoeksema5,

R. W. Komm9, K. D. Leka1, A. R. Marble10,2, V. Martinez Pillet9, M. Miesch10,2,

L. J. Nickisch11, A. A. Pevtsov9, V. J. Pizzo2, W. K. Tobiska12, S. C. Tripathy9, J. Zhao5

1NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO 80301

2NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, CO 80305

3NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771

4SWx TREC, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303

5Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4085

6High Altitude Observatory, NCAR, Boulder, CO 80301

7Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain

8AFRL Space Vehicles Directorate Kirtland AFB, NM 87117

9National Solar Observatory, Boulder, CO 80303

10CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303

11NorthWest Research Associates, Monterey, CA 93940

12Space Environment Technologies, Pacific Palisades, CA 90272-2844

Synopsis: The purpose of this white paper is to put together a coherent vision for the role of

helioseismic monitoring of magnetic activity in the Sun's far hemisphere that will contribute to

improving space weather forecasting as well as fundamental research in the coming decade. Our

goal fits into the broader context of helioseismology in solar research for any number of endeavors

when helioseismic monitors may be the sole synoptic view of the Sun's far hemisphere. It is

intended to foster a growing understanding of solar activity, as realistically monitored in both

hemispheres, and its relationship to all known aspects of the near-Earth and terrestrial

environment. Some of the questions and goals that can be fruitfully pursued through seismic

monitoring of farside solar activity in the coming decade include:

• What is the relationship between helioseismic signatures and their associated magnetic

configurations, and how is this relationship connected to the solar EUV irradiance over the

period of a solar rotation?

• How can helioseismic monitoring contribute to data-driven global magnetic-field models

for precise space weather forecasting?

• What can helioseismic monitors tell us about prospects of a flare, CME or high-speed

stream that impacts the terrestrial environment over the period of a solar rotation?

• How does the inclusion of farside information contribute to forecasts of interplanetary

space weather and the environments to be encountered by human crews in interplanetary

space?

Thus, it is crucial for the development of farside monitoring of the Sun be continued into the next

decade either through ground-based or space-borne observations.

A White Paper Submitted to Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) – SSPH 2024-2033

1. Background

Our space environment is affected by violent solar episodes that impact modern technological

society in numerous ways. For example, electrical power grids, telecommunications, air transport,

space activities, navigation, etc., all have been adversely affected by events on the Sun. These

occur on time scales from minutes to months, or even years. The origin of these episodes lies in

the complex system of magnetic flux that permeates the solar interior, emerges through the

photosphere and finally moves into the Sun's outer atmosphere. This magnetic flux has

considerable free energy which, released in the aforesaid episodes, drives flares, coronal mass

ejections (CMEs), bursts of solar energetic particles (SEPs) and high-speed streams in the solar

wind (Temmer 2021). These anomalies rain into the near-Earth environment, radically impacting

it and the interplanetary space environment. As in terrestrial weather, we can do little to change

“space weather” as yet. However, there are ways we can reduce its impact through advance

warnings, and this depends crucially on how well we understand the physics of solar eruptive

phenomena and our ability to forecast space weather.

2. What We Lose by Observing the Earth-facing Side Only

While SEPs emanating from energetic eruptions beyond the west limb occasionally have severe

impacts on the near-Earth environment, solar eruptive events originating from the far hemisphere

near the east limb usually do not affect space weather much at Earth. The major import of magnetic

regions from the Sun's far hemisphere is that solar rotation carries them into the near hemisphere

within two weeks, where their full impact on the Earth and near-Earth environment can be felt. As

a single characteristic parameter, this two-week time scale by itself lends little sense of the realistic

suddenness with which solar activity can elicit such an impact. Our star can gestate an active region

from infancy to full maturity in its far hemisphere over a week or two to confront our planet with

its direct impact from its east limb inside of an hour. Figure 1 illustrates an M-class flare of solar

cycle 25 that emanated suddenly from just behind the far hemispheric east solar limb from an

active region (NOAA AR12781) born in the far hemisphere in the previous solar rotation (Jain

2020), to inflict an unwelcome radio communication outage on southern Asia.

Synchronic observations of the full Sun are thus crucial for monitoring the emergence and

evolution of its active regions, which are the primary drivers of space weather. Thus, both

hemispheres provide vital information about solar activity that plays a decisive role in space

weather forecasts. During the early rising phase of solar activity cycle 25, large active regions

(NOAA AR 12785/12786) emerged on the farside during a relatively quiet period. This active

region complex appeared in the farside seismic monitors and then was forecasted successfully

about 10 days prior to its appearance on the frontside (Jain & Lindsey 2020). These did not produce

any major geomagnetic storm but did increase the EUV flux (Jain et al. 2021). Figure 1 shows the

complex crossing central solar meridian 18 days after its discovery in helioseismic maps of the

Sun's far hemisphere.

The scope of space weather is about to expand radically over the next decade. The space weather

we have known emanates from conspicuous magnetic regions in plain view but highly dependent

upon location. In early February of 2022, 38 Starlink satellites were lost within a couple of days

of their launch due to a geomagnetic storm originating from a CME driven by an M1.4-class flare

emanating from NOAA AR12936. About two weeks later, the same active region produced

another strong CME but on the farside, which was captured by several spacecrafts, e.g., the Solar

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AWhitePaperSubmittedtoDecadalSurveyforSolarandSpacePhysics(Heliophysics)–SSPH2024-2033SeismicMonitoringoftheSun’sFarHemisphere:ACrucialComponentinFutureSpaceWeatherForecastingPrincipalAuthor:KiranJainNationalSolarObservatory,3665DiscoveryDr.,Boulder,CO80303,USACo-authors:C.Lindsey1,E.Adamson2,C.N.Ar...

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A White Paper Submitted to Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics Heliophysics SSPH 2024 -2033 Seismic Monitoring of the Suns Far Hemisphere A Crucial Component in Future Space Weather Forecasting

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