2
we should no longer talk of what an agent “knows”, since that
unhelpfully suggests a likely misleading degree of accuracy;
but instead what it “believes”, since that implies an appropri-
ate degree of doubt and uncertainty. Although up to date and
accurate information might be received in any new message
just received, since communications will be sparse, we need
to keep in mind that this will nevertheless become less reli-
able as time passes. What this means in practice is that many
of the typical treatments of swarm activities as given above
(e.g. [1, 3–7, 11, 15, 17]) become secondary problems to the
fundamental issue [28]: i.e. how well does each agent know
where the others are, so that it might send a message, and what
tactics should it use to maximise the accuracy of its beliefs,
whilst minimising its exposure to adversarial action? A game
theory [29, 30] problem arises here because an agent gains
no new information by sending a message, but such transmis-
sions only expose it to more risk. Instead, remaining silent
might allow agents to risklessly accumulate information from
the transmissions of others – except that if all agents do this,
the swarm cannot behave coherently. The situation is a com-
parable to an inverse tragedy of the commons [31].
In our scenario, agents must both cooperate and coordinate.
Here “cooperation” refers to the necessity that all agents must
cooperate by all sending location messages, because without
this, agents will end up with inaccurate information, and so
be unable to target messages successfully, so that swarm con-
nectivity must then fail. Further, “coordination” refers to the
fact that a connected swarm can only be formed using multi-
hop message paths (as per Sec. 4.3) if other agents cooperate
by forwarding such messages. Without this cooperation, any
message must be sent directly, requiring accurate information
about all other agents. In such a direct-signalling paradigm,
not only would an increased transmission power be needed to
reach the longer ranges, increasing risk, but any blocked mes-
saged path would be fatal for connectivity.
Our contribution here is that we construct a mathemat-
ical multi-agent information model that can be specialized
to both continuum communications and discrete communi-
cations models. The discrete communications model is then
used to design a stochastic simulation code, which we used to
benchmark and test a minimal approach that optimises com-
munications whilst minimising risk, whilst using only mini-
mal assumptions. In particular, we focus in on the underlying
basics of the “to transmit ... or not to transmit?” problem
without the many additional complications of as movement in
space, specific communications physics, or how to build op-
timal communications networks within the swarm. As well
as considering what properties of the model an agent might
be permitted to use when taking action, we present some per-
formance and risk metrics that help evaluate the performance-
under-constraint scenario, and also propose a round-trip tim-
ing test that is based solely on data an agent is aware of, and
which can be used to deprecate poor links.
In what follows we present our model and its concepts in
Sec. II. This is followed by a continuum communication im-
plementation in Sec. III, where an agent might act to modify
its transmission priorities on the basis of the rate of informa-
tion arrival from other agents. This rate-equation description
can be used to generate indicative steady-state answers, and
allow some preliminary conclusions. To assist with judge-
ments about performance, we define some agent and swarm
metrics in Sec. IV. Then we describe our implementation of
a discrete communications approach in Sec. V, where we use
a Monte-Carlo approach to produce a more sophisticated un-
derstanding of the distribution of possible outcomes. Here, the
informational basis on which an agent might act is no longer
a rate, but instead the timings (and time-delays) of messages
from other agents, and so in Sec. VI we show and explain
some results using this approach. After a discussion in Sec.
VII, we conclude in Sec. VIII.
II. MULTI-AGENT MODEL
We consider a swarm of Nagents that intend to cooperate
and send messages about their activities to each other. Our
model state is intended to mimic the behavior of a spatially
distributed swarm of agents, but without requiring a detailed
spatial model and all the additional complications that would
entail. As such it contains only a minimal set of features, and
is primarily intended to facilitate an initial understanding of
how our novel scenario might be handled. The model contains
four types of information, intended to represent as simply as
possible the accuracy of an agents beliefs, the degradation of
that accuracy as time passes, the environment’s effect on sig-
nalling efficiency, and agent messaging choices. Thus:
First,: each agent ahas an information store about all other
agents j, which we summarize using values Φa
j. If
this store contains recent and reliable information, we
would expect it to result in a high probability of mes-
saging success, but if the information is outdated or oth-
erwise unreliable, the probability would instead be low.
Thus these accuracies are represented as probabilities,
using real numbers Φa
j∈[0,1]; with zero representing
entirely inaccurate beliefs and 1 representing perfectly
accurate beliefs. Since agent ais presumably perfectly
informed about itself, Φa
a=1 should always hold.
Second,: we allow for the possibility that an agent’s beliefs
about others slowly become out of date and degraded.
We model this by assuming that all the Φa
j(iff j6=a) de-
cay exponentially as determined by some loss parame-
ter γ. However, we assume there is also a minimum
“find by chance” probability Φmsuch that Φa
j≥Φmfor
any aand all j.
Third,: there is an agent-to-agent transmission efficiency,
which represents environmental constraints that might
hinder communications between agents. This agent-
to-agent transmission efficiency Lab ∈[0,1]enables the
representation of a wide range of networks, including
networks based on spatial positions and signal models,
as well as those with Lab generated randomly according
to some algorithm, e.g. abstract Erdos-Renyi (ER) net-
works [32]. However, at this early stage we do not spec-
ify how the efficiencies Lab might have been generated,
and can even allow Lab 6=Lba, i.e. the transmission effi-
ciency from ato bmay be different to the transmission
efficiency from bto a. An important feature is that we
do not assume any agent ahas any information about
either Lba or Lab.
Fourth,: since an agent might transmit information at differ-
ent rates towards different targets, we also specify its
set of transmission rates αa
i.