Retirement spending problem under Habit Formation Model S. Kirusheva1 H. Huang2 and T.S. Salisbury3

2025-04-26 0 0 1.39MB 34 页 10玖币
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Retirement spending problem under
Habit Formation Model
S. Kirusheva1, H. Huang2, and T.S. Salisbury3
1,2,3Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
2Research Centre for Mathematics, Advanced Institute of Natural Sciences, Beijing Normal
University, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China
2BNU-HKBU United International College, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China
Abstract
In this paper we consider the problem of optimizing lifetime consumption
under a habit formation model. Our work differs from previous results,
because we incorporate mortality and pension income. Lifetime utility of
consumption makes the problem time inhomogeneous, because of the effect
of ageing. Considering habit formation means increasing the dimension of the
stochastic control problem, because one must track smoothed-consumption
using an additional variable, habit ¯c. Including exogenous pension income π
means that we cannot rely on a kind of scaling transformation to reduce the
dimension of the problem as in earlier work, therefore we solve it numerically,
using a finite difference scheme. We also explore how consumption changes
over time based on habit if the retiree follows the optimal strategy. Finally,
we answer the question of whether it is reasonable to annuitize wealth at the
time of retirement or not by varying parameters, such as asset allocation θ
and the smoothing factor η.
1. Introduction
1.1. Motivation
Nowadays, we observe a growing interest in investment plans that give a potential client
the confidence of a stable income over the course of retirement. The main goal of
any such plan is to find the strategy that minimizes the risk of ruin and, at the same
time, maximizes the level of consumption. Our current research deals with a retirement
skir@yorku.ca. Kirusheva’s research was supported in part by MITACS and CANNEX Inc.
salt@yorku.ca. Salisbury’s and Huang’s research were suppoted in part by grants from NSERC.
1
arXiv:2210.06255v1 [q-fin.PM] 12 Oct 2022
spending problem (RSP) under dynamics that include the individual’s habit. In other
words, we take into consideration how much a retiree usually spends, i.e. we solve the
problem under a habit formation model (HFM). This postulate makes the model much
more difficult to solve.
In this paper our goal is to explore how the presence of exogenous income in the model
that includes the client’s habit will affect the optimal consumption and compare these
results with different models, such as HFM without pension for two cases, with and
without asset allocation. Also we answer the question of how much the agent can spend
during retirement based on his initial wealth wand consumption habit ¯c.
There is one more interesting option for a retiree that we also discuss in this article.
The individual can convert some or all of his initial wealth into annuities. We briefly
discuss this possibility, and if it is reasonble to do so at age of 65 depending on the client’s
habit. We assume that once he converts his wealth into annuities he can’t reverse the
transaction. We obtain numerical results for different parameters, such as habit ¯c, asset
allocation θ, and smoothing factor η.
1.2. Literature review
Many articles have been written on this topic that consider various scenarios. Lately
more researchers are paying more attention to the HFM when they deal with financial
questions. There are several articles that solve similar problems, somehow related to the
habit formation model, for example [1], [4], [5], [16], [17], [18]. All of them use different
approaches and techniques. First, we should mention one of the earliest papers [6].
In that article the author tried to solve the equity premium puzzle (EPP) which was
first formalized in a study by Rajnish Mehra and Edward C. Prescott [11]. Under
the assumption of rational expectations this problem was resolved. One of the issues
with that formulation is that the consumption should be always greater or equal to
the exponentially weighted average (EWA) of consumption which is hard to implement
in real situations. As a consequence, there are modifications of this work which are
discussed, for instance in the book [20] which introduces a novel form for the HFM
utility. Another attempt to resolve the EPP was made by the authors [22]. They
considered optimal portfolio and consumption selection problems with habit formation
in a jump diffusion incomplete market in continuous-time. One more pioneering work [18]
describes a model of consumer behaviour based on a specific class of utility functions,
the so-called “modified Bergson family”.
Another example of using HFM was covered in the following article [17] which explores
the implications of additive and endogenous habit formation preferences in the context of
a life-cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice for an investor who has stochastic
uninsurable labor income. In order to get a solution he derives analytically constraints
for habit and wealth and explains the relationship between the worst possible path of
future labor income and the habit strength parameter. He concludes that even a small
possibility of a very low income implies more conservative portfolios and higher savings
rates. The main implications of the model are robust to income smoothing through
borrowing or flexible labor supply.
2
Finally, we would like to mention one more paper [7] where the authors proved
existence of optimal consumption-portfolio policies for utility functions for which the
marginal cost of consumption (MCC) interacted with the habit formation process and
satisfied a recursive integral equation with a forward functional Lipschitz integrand and
for utilities for which the MCC is independent of the standard of living and satisfied a
recursive integral equation with locally Lipschitz integrand.
There are a lot of financial strategies which can help to plan how to spend money under
different preferences but one of the most important targets is to arrange consumption
during retirement. There are many works devoted to retirement spending plans, such
as [1], [9], [10], [14]. For example, in the paper [1] the authors discuss consumption and
investment decisions in a life-cycle model under a habit formation model incorporating
stochastic wages and labor supply flexibility. One of the results shown was that utilities
that exhibit habit formation and consumption-leisure complimentarities induce an im-
pact of past wages on the consumption of retirees. Hence the authors showed that it is
important to take into consideration habit and consumption-leisure complimentarities
when formulating life-cycle investment plans. In the next article [9] the authors consider
a model based on results from the article [14] where a similar problem was solved under
assumption of deterministic investment returns. In [9] the authors accept stochastic
returns and then compare optimal spending rates with the analytic approach from the
article [14]. When a potential client starts to think about a retirement spending plan
there is one more question that arises, namely under which conditions he can consider
investment into annuities for part or all of his wealth. To be precise, when we say “an-
nuities” we mean life annuities, insurance products that pay out a periodic amount for
as long as the annuitant is alive, in exchange for a premium (see [3]). This question has
been widely discussed in the literature, for example [13], [15] or [19].
In the recent article [9] RSP was solved for fixed risky asset allocation θ= const. Here
we solve a similar problem following HFM, using the novel utility of [20].
1.3. Paper Agenda
The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we explain what the habit formation
model is and formulate our problem for two different cases, without (see Section 2.2)
and with (see Section 2.3) pension. In Section 3 we discuss how the smoothing factor
ηaffects the numerical solution and provide a comparison between two different cases,
without pension (Section 3.1) and when the client has constant pension income (Section
3.2.1 and 3.2.2).
Section 4 is devoted to discussing how the client can spend money during his retirement
based on a given initial amount of wealth wand a certain habit ¯c. In the Section 5 we
analyze the possibility of annuitizing wealth, entire or partially, at the age of 65.
As with most of these models, this one doesn’t have an analytical solution and has to
be approximated numerically. Many algorithms have been developed through the years.
Every algorithm has its own advantages and disadvantages, which differ in accuracy
and efficiency. In this paper we chose a finite difference scheme for its simplicity and
accuracy. The detailed description of the approximation scheme, some error analysis as
3
well as some theoretical background are provided in the Appendices (see A, B, C). In
Appendix D we summarize numerical results obtained for different sets of wealth wand
habit ¯c. Finally, in Appendix E, we describe some numerical results for different sets
of asset allocations θand volatility σfor fixed smoothing factor η= 1.0,as the most
interesting case for solving problem under HFM.
2. Model formulation
2.1. Introduction
When we think about the model we should think about a client, more precisely about a
retiree, who has a certain amount of wealth wand who wants to know what to do next
with his endowment. In order to decide how much he can spend we should understand
how wealth is changing over the time counting all possible income and expenses, as in
the following:
dwt= [θ(µr) + r]wtdt+θσwtdWt+πdtctdt
ct=η(ct¯ct)dt. (1)
We can provide the following explanation of the equations (1). There is a part of wealth
wwhich grows at the riskless rate r, there is a stochastic component represented by the
parameter θ, which is the fraction of wealth invested into risky assets (in our case, we
take it as a fixed parameter θ), drift µ, volatility σand Wta Brownian Motion (BM).
Also assume that there is an exogenous fixed income, pension π. We solve our problem
using a habit formation model. This means that the agent’s utility depends on the
consumption rate ctand on an EWA ¯ctof consumption rates over previous time periods.
We will consider the finite-horizon problem therefore the client’s objective function is
taken to be
V(t,w,¯c) = sup
ct
EZT
t
eρs p
s xucs
¯csds|wt=w,¯ct= ¯c(2)
where ρis the personal time preference or subjective discount rate, p
s x is the probability
of survival from the retirement age xto x+s. We set up the probability of survival
based on the Gompertz Law of Mortality ( [12]), i.e.
p
s x =eRt
0λx+qdq.(3)
Here λis the biological hazard rate λx+q=1
be(x+qm)/b where mis the modal value of
life (see p47, [12]), bis the dispersion coefficient of the future lifetime random variable,
uis the CRRA utility function
u(c) = c1γ
1γ(4)
4
where γis the risk aversion parameter. Note that the formulation of utility in (2) is
due to [20] and differs from much of the HFM literature. This changes the nature of the
solutions.
In order to solve this problem, we will use the value function approach that implies
we should derive an Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation for our model. Let us
consider two different cases. The problem that we are going to solve first, reflects an
agent’s expectations who doesn’t have any pension income which means that his wealth’s
growth results partly from investing in a bank account growing at the risk free rate and
partly from investing another portion of the wealth into risky assets. The second problem
involves the presence of pension income. In addition, the asset allocation will be fixed.
2.2. Model without pension.
In this paragraph we consider wealth and habit dynamics (1) without pension and with
asset allocation as a parameter θ=const with the client’s objective function described
as follows (see Appendix A(29)). Since we use the value function approach, we need
to derive an HJB equation using a verification theorem (A.1) but, first, let’s change
variables. This will allow us to reduce the dimension of our problem by analogy with
one introduced in the book [20]
xtwt
¯ct
, qt=ct
¯ct
,
V(t,w,¯c) = Vt,w
¯c,1νt,w
¯c=ν(t,x)
(5)
where V(t,w,¯c) is the unknown value function defined by equation (2). Then the dy-
namics of the new scaled wealth xwill be the following
dxt= d wt
¯ct=rxtdt+θ((µr)xtdt+σxtdWt)(ηxt+ 1)qtdt+ηxtdt.
Omitting all calculations we provide only the final HJB equation using the new variables
νt(ρ+λ)ν+ανx+βνxx +u(q) = 0 (6)
where the optimal consumption qwill be
q= [(ηx + 1)νx]1
γ.(7)
and the coefficients α=α(x) and β=β(x) in the formula have the following form
α= (θ(µr) + r+η)x(ηx + 1)q, β =1
2θ2σ2x2.
Boundary conditions for this problem are taken to be following: At the boundary
x= 0 assume that optimal consumption is q
t= 0 since there is not any other income.
Then at the other boundary where x=xmax assume that the value function gradually
approaches zero which implies that the value function derivative is zero, i.e. νx= 0.
5
摘要:

RetirementspendingproblemunderHabitFormationModelS.Kirusheva*1,H.Huang2,andT.S.Salisbury„31,2,3DepartmentofMathematicsandStatistics,YorkUniversity,Toronto,Ontario,Canada2ResearchCentreforMathematics,AdvancedInstituteofNaturalSciences,BeijingNormalUniversity,Zhuhai,Guangdong,China2BNU-HKBUUnitedInter...

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