BP Technology Outlook Technology choices for a secure affordable and sustainable energy future_2

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BP Technology Outlook
Technology choices for a secure, affordable
and sustainable energy future
November 2015
1
1.0
2.1
3.0
3.1
Key influences
on energy
technology
4.0
105
145
40
70
Technologies
to meet energy
demand 2.0
This publication sets out how technological developments could shape and
influence the way we identify sources of energy and extract, convert, store
and ultimately consume them over the next 35 years.
Using insights from BP’s data and analysis, it maps out a path that can deliver
energy supplies that are secure, affordable and environmentally sustainable.
While we provide an overview of technologies across the energy system, we
present more detail on oil-and gas-related energy technologies. We look at each
major region in the world, focusing on North America as a specific example.
When analyzing costs, we use data from the period when oil prices were around
$100 per barrel, and show how technology could reduce costs relative to this
benchmark. Clearly, other deflationary forces are at play in the lower-oil-price
environment – and these can and should be differentiated from the technology
signal in this publication.
The analysis is, of course, based on what we know today. In that sense it can only
ever be a snapshot of new and emerging technologies – some, such as carbon
capture and storage, are still in their infancy; others, such as solar photovoltaic (PV),
are developing quickly. We must also acknowledge the impact that breakthroughs
in other sectors, such as data analytics, will have in helping us to meet global
energy demand in the most effective way. This trend of convergence between
sectors is already making an impact.
Naturally, the future is uncertain. This analysis looks at today’s trends and the
implications those trends may have for future governments, businesses and
wider society.
1.0 Global context
page 4
An overview of the energy landscape.
2.0 Energy resources
page 8
Overview of technologies
that will enable improvements
in recovery of fossil and
non-fossil resources.
2.1 Conversion and end use
page 15
Comparative overview of electricity generation,
fuels production and vehicle technologies.
3.0 Natural resource
constraints
page 25
Impact of constraints related to
water, minerals, land and climate
on technology choices.
3.1 Emerging
technologies
page 33
Overview of technologies
that are not widely used today,
but with the potential to transform
the energy landscape.
4.0 Conclusions and
implications
page 37
Evolution of energy and the role of
different technologies in the short,
medium and long terms.
About this
publication
Contents
Introduction 2
Key insights 3
1.0 Global context 4
Technologies to meet
energy demand 7
2.0 Energy resources 8
2.1 Conversion and end use 15
Key influences on
energy technology 24
3.0 Natural resource constraints 25
3.1 Emerging technologies 33
4.0 Conclusions and implications 37
Our approach 39
Glossary 40
More information 41
External perspectives
Within this publication there are six
opinion pieces authored by a range of
industry experts, including IHS Energy,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Ford
Motor Company, Princeton University,
Tsinghua University and Masdar Institute
of Science and Technology.
The opinion pieces can be found on
pages 14, 19, 23, 28, 32 and 36.
2
Introduction
the industry to develop new technologies
to reduce costs; however, the situation
reminds us that energy is influenced by
the interplay of many different factors.
Technologies such as enhanced oil recovery,
advanced seismic imaging, and digitization
will have a huge impact on which of the
available fossil resources we develop, how,
where and when. Innovation will not only
help to sustain the supply of hydrocarbons,
it will enable renewable resources – most
notably solar and wind – to be more
competitive, changing the merit order of
investment and resource development.
In terms of energy’s end use for transport,
liquid fuels, including biofuels, are likely
to continue as the major source of
transport fuel for at least the next 30
years. They will be used more efficiently
as vehicles and engines become lighter and
smarter. In power generation, as well as
increasing contributions from renewables,
new opportunities such as a global shift
towards natural gas, improved energy
efficiency and, ultimately, carbon capture
and storage technology will help us to
move towards a lower-carbon future.
Meanwhile, further falls in the costs of
For many years at BP we have regularly
assessed energy technology developments,
looking back to learn lessons and looking
forward to anticipate the trends that will
shape our industry and others.
BP Technology Outlook marks the first
time we have shared the outcomes of our
analysis with the wider world. It sets out
how technology could shape our energy
landscape over the next 30 to 40 years.
The analysis shows that the world is not
running out of resources for its energy
needs. Fossil fuels of oil, gas and coal,
along with uranium, are plentiful while the
alternatives of renewable energies do not
deplete by definition. With existing and
incremental technology advances, we
have abundant and technically accessible
resources to meet foreseeable global
primary energy demand out to 2050
and beyond. The extent to which each
fuel is used depends on many factors.
These include technology and policy
but also capital. At the time of writing,
an abundance of supply and a fall-off in
demand growth have driven energy prices
down and constrained the funds available
for investment. Such price falls compel
Introduction
We live in a world of rapid change where developments in
technology can transform societies, economies and industries.
In the corporate world, history tells us that companies that do
not anticipate or adapt to new technologies struggle to survive.
On the other hand, companies with leading technologies are
often the most competitive and successful.
BP Technology Outlook
renewables and developments in areas
such as battery storage and smart energy
systems will widen options in an already
competitive market.
Society’s challenge is how to balance
mitigating climate change while at
the same time providing the energy
security and affordability that drives
socio-economic development. The energy
industry can assist in the transition to
a more sustainable economy if policy
frameworks are developed to promote
investment in lower-carbon technology.
Our aim for this publication, similar to
BP Energy Outlook 2035, and BP Statistical
Review of World Energy 2015, is to make
a valuable contribution to the debate about
how best to shape a secure, affordable and
sustainable energy future. I hope you find it
interesting and useful.
Bob Dudley
Group Chief Executive
November 2015
3
Key insightsBP Technology Outlook
Key insights
What the analysis shows
The power sector offers greatest
scope for reducing emissions
Using technology to improve energy efficiency is often economic.
Beyond this, there is an immediate cost to reducing emissions, and
this is generally lower in power generation than in transportation.
In many regions, a modest carbon price can make new-build natural
gas more competitive than existing coal, and gas is cleaner.
At higher carbon prices, wind and solar become more competitive,
providing there is backup power capacity. Capturing the carbon from
burning gas for power can also become economically viable.
Energy resources
are plentiful
Energy resources are more than sufficient to
meet future, long-term demand.
Technology has great potential to increase the
supply of both fossil and non-fossil fuels, while
reducing their costs.
The questions for policymakers are about
choosing which resources to prioritize in meeting
demand, while limiting emissions and providing
energy security.
Some emerging technologies
could prove disruptive
The nature of certain technologies, in areas such as digital systems, bioscience
and nanoscience, makes them potentially disruptive to markets, trends and
business models.
Developments in advanced materials could lead to extraordinary improvements in
the performance of batteries, solar conversion and the use of hydrogen as a fuel;
however, these technologies could take decades to be applied globally, because
of the capital required.
Digital technology has particular potential to drive far-reaching change because it
offers multiple opportunities to make energy supply and consumption safer, more
reliable, more efficient and more cost effective.
Transport is set to
become more efficient
Continued improvement in the efficiency of
internal combustion engines (ICE) and vehicles
will reduce emissions.
The cost of supplying biofuels will fall,
particularly second-generation biofuels made
from grasses, wastes and other non-edible
agricultural matter.
Despite their high energy efficiency, electric
vehicles or fuel-cell vehicles still need significant
technological advances to compete with ICE
vehicles on cost.
4
1.0 Global context
There are now
more than twice
the global proved
oil reserves that
there were in 1980.
In the past
30 years energy
consumption
has doubled.
Technologies, such as horizontal
drilling and hydraulic fracturing,
have opened up significant shale
oil and gas formations.
The 2014–15 drop in
the oil price will drive
further efficiency in
oil production.
Since 1800 the
global population
has grown from
one billion to
seven billion.
Improvements in living standards in
the twentieth century have doubled
average life expectancy to 60 years,
a transformation largely fuelled by
coal, oil and gas.
2020
2000
The carbon dioxide
created by consuming
fossil fuels will continue
to be a major issue.
1900
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In the future,
transformational
change could
come from one
or more of a
number of different
technologies
working in unison.
F
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2050
Which technologies will be most
significant in the world of energy
in the coming decades? In this
publication, we review the range
of technologies used to find,
produce, process and consume
energy – and how they might
develop. We examine the journey
that energy is likely to take
and the technologies with the
potential to be significant at each
stage.
The journey so far
Since 1800 much of the world has
industrialized, and the average life
expectancy has doubled from 30 to 60
years. It took all of human history for the
world’s population to reach one billion in
1820; today it is seven billion and is forecast
to be eight billion in less than a decade.
This transformation has been largely fuelled
by coal, oil and gas providing heat, power
and mobility, which in turn has helped drive
economic growth, create jobs and raise
living standards.
The past decade and a half has seen a
surge in these trends, driven by demand
from emerging economies, led by China and
India. Consumption of energy has almost
doubled. Although energy has played a
major part in lifting millions out of poverty
in recent decades, many lack the access
to energy taken for granted in advanced
economies. For example, more than a billion
people still live without electricity.
On the supply side, technology has helped
the energy industry discover more oil and
gas than society has consumed. Proved oil
reserves, for example, now stand at more
than twice the level they were at in 1980.
Key technologies driving this phenomenon
include advances in seismic imaging that
enable geologists to pinpoint subsurface
reservoirs more accurately, and new
techniques to improve oil recovery that
prolong production from reservoirs.
Meanwhile, other technologies such as
horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing
have opened up significant shale oil and
gas formations. Resources are now
plentiful and the concern about oil and
gas running out has all but disappeared.
The resources are unevenly spread,
however, with four countries accounting
for more than 50% of proved oil reserves.
The same is true for gas1. With such
disparities between where energy is
located and where it is used, net consumer
countries often seek to increase their
domestic production and limit imports to
enable energy security.
The twenty-first century energy journey
1.0 Global context
BP Technology Outlook
1 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.
Four countries control more than 50% of the world’s
proved oil reserves (Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada
and Iran). Four countries control more than 50%
of the world’s gas reserves (Russian Federation, Iran,
Qatar and Turkmenistan).
摘要：

BPTechnologyOutlookTechnologychoicesforasecure,affordableandsustainableenergyfutureNovember201511.02.13.03.1Keyinfluencesonenergytechnology4.01051454070Technologiestomeetenergydemand2.0Thispublicationsetsouthowtechnologicaldevelopmentscouldshapeandinfluencethewayweidentifysourcesofenergyandextract,c...

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