bickerstaff-partridge papers(比克一帕特拉奇文件)

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The Bickerstaff-Partridge Papers

The Bickerstaff-

Partridge Papers

Jonathan Swift

The Bickerstaff-Partridge Papers

PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR 1708

Wherein the month, and day of the month are set down, the persons

named, and the great actions and events of next year particularly related,

as will come to pass.

Written to prevent the people of England from being farther imposed

on by vulgar almanack-makers.

By Isaac Bickerstaff, Esq.

I have long consider'd the gross abuse of astrology in this kingdom,

and upon debating the matter with myself, I could not possibly lay the

fault upon the art, but upon those gross impostors, who set up to be the

artists. I know several learned men have contended that the whole is a

cheat; that it is absurd and ridiculous to imagine, the stars can have any

influence at all upon human actions, thoughts, or inclinations: And

whoever has not bent his studies that way, may be excused for thinking so,

when he sees in how wretched a manner that noble art is treated by a few

mean illiterate traders between us and the stars; who import a yearly stock

of nonsense, lyes, folly, and impertinence, which they offer to the world as

genuine from the planets, tho' they descend from no greater a height than

their own brains.

I intend in a short time to publish a large and rational defence of this

art, and therefore shall say no more in its justification at present, than that

it hath been in all ages defended by many learned men, and among the rest

by Socrates himself, whom I look upon as undoubtedly the wisest of

uninspir'd mortals: To which if we add, that those who have condemned

this art, though otherwise learned, having been such as either did not apply

their studies this way, or at least did not succeed in their applications; their

testimony will not be of much weight to its disadvantage, since they are

liable to the common objection of condemning what they did not

understand.

Nor am I at all offended, or think it an injury to the art, when I see the

common dealers in it, the students in astrology, the philomaths, and the

rest of that tribe, treated by wise men with the utmost scorn and contempt;

but rather wonder, when I observe gentlemen in the country, rich enough

The Bickerstaff-Partridge Papers

to serve the nation in parliament, poring in Partridge's almanack, to find

out the events of the year at home and abroad; not daring to propose a

hunting-match, till Gadbury or he have fixed the weather.

I will allow either of the two I have mentioned, or any other of the

fraternity, to be not only astrologers, but conjurers too, if I do not produce

a hundred instances in all their almanacks, to convince any reasonable

man, that they do not so much as understand common grammar and syntax;

that they are not able to spell any word out of the usual road, nor even in

their prefaces write common sense or intelligible English. Then for their

observations and predictions, they are such as will equally suit any age or

country in the world. "This month a certain great person will be threatened

with death or sickness." This the news-papers will tell them; for there we

find at the end of the year, that no month passes without the death of some

person of note; and it would be hard if it should be otherwise, when there

are at least two thousand persons of not in this kingdom, many of them old,

and the almanack-maker has the liberty of chusing the sickliest season of

the year where he may fix his prediction. Again, "This month an eminent

clergyman will be preferr'd;" of which there may be some hundreds half of

them with one foot in the grave. Then "such a planet in such a house

shews great machinations, plots and conspiracies, that may in time be

brought to light:" After which, if we hear of any discovery, the astrologer

gets the honour; if not, his prediction still stands good. And at last, "God

preserve King William from all his open and secret enemies, Amen."

When if the King should happen to have died, the astrologer plainly

foretold it; otherwise it passes but for the pious ejaculation of a loyal

subject: Though it unluckily happen'd in some of their almanacks, that

poor King William was pray'd for many months after he was dead,

because it fell out that he died about the beginning of the year.

To mention no more of their impertinent predictions: What have we to

do with their advertisements about pills and drink for the venereal disease?

Or their mutual quarrels in verse and prose of Whig and Tory, wherewith

the stars have little to do?

Having long observed and lamented these, and a hundred other abuses

of this art, too tedious to repeat, I resolved to proceed in a new way, which

The Bickerstaff-Partridge Papers

I doubt not will be to the general satisfaction of the kingdom: I can this

year produce but a specimen of what I design for the future; having

employ'd most part of my time in adjusting and correcting the calculations

I made some years past, because I would offer nothing to the world of

which I am not as fully satisfied, as that I am now alive. For these two last

years I have not failed in above one or two particulars, and those of no

very great moment. I exactly foretold the miscarriage at Toulon, with all

its particulars; and the loss of Admiral Shovel, tho' I was mistaken as to

the day, placing that accident about thirty-six hours sooner than it happen'd;

but upon reviewing my schemes, I quickly found the cause of that error. I

likewise foretold the Battle of Almanza to the very day and hour, with the

loss on both sides, and the consequences thereof. All which I shewed to

some friends many months before they happened, that is, I gave them

papers sealed up, to open at such a time, after which they were at liberty to

read them; and there they found my predictions true in every article,

except one or two, very minute.

As for the few following predictions I now offer the world, I forbore to

publish them till I had perused the several almanacks for the year we are

now enter'd on. I find them in all the usual strain, and I beg the reader will

compare their manner with mine: And here I make bold to tell the world,

that I lay the whole credit of my art upon the truth of these predictions;

and I will be content, that Partridge, and the rest of his clan, may hoot me

for a cheat and impostor, if I fail in any singular particular of moment. I

believe, any man who reads this paper, will look upon me to be at least a

person of as much honesty and understanding, as a common maker of

almanacks. I do not lurk in the dark; I am not wholly unknown in the

world; I have set my name at length, to be a mark of infamy to mankind, if

they shall find I deceive them.

In one thing I must desire to be forgiven, that I talk more sparingly of

home-affairs: As it will be imprudence to discover secrets of state, so it

would be dangerous to my person; but in smaller matters, and that are not

of publick consequence, I shall be very free; and the truth of my

conjectures will as much appear from those as the other. As for the most

signal events abroad in France, Flanders, Italy and Spain, I shall make no

The Bickerstaff-Partridge Papers

scruple to predict them in plain terms: Some of them are of importance,

and I hope I shall seldom mistake the day they will happen; therefore, I

think good to inform the reader, that I all along make use of the Old Style

observed in England, which I desire he will compare with that of the

news-papers, at the time they relate the actions I mention.

I must add one word more: I know it hath been the opinion of several

of the learned, who think well enough of the true art of astrology, That the

stars do only incline, and not force the actions or wills of men: And

therefore, however I may proceed by right rules, yet I cannot in prudence

so confidently assure the events will follow exactly as I predict them.

I hope I have maturely considered this objection, which in some cases

is of no little weight. For example: A man may, by the influence of an

over-ruling planet, be disposed or inclined to lust, rage, or avarice, and yet

by the force of reason overcome that bad influence; and this was the case

of Socrates: But as the great events of the world usually depend upon

numbers of men, it cannot be expected they should all unite to cross their

inclinations, from pursuing a general design, wherein they unanimously

agree. Besides the influence of the stars reaches to many actions and

events which are not any way in the power of reason; as sickness, death,

and what we commonly call accidents, with many more, needless to

repeat.

But now it is time to proceed to my predictions, which I have begun to

calculate from the time that the Sun enters into Aries. And this I take to be

properly the beginning of the natural year. I pursue them to the time that

he enters Libra, or somewhat more, which is the busy period of the year.

The remainder I have not yet adjusted, upon account of several

impediments needless here to mention: Besides, I must remind the reader

again, that this is but a specimen of what I design in succeeding years to

treat more at large, if I may have liberty and encouragement.

My first prediction is but a trifle, yet I will mention it, to show how

ignorant those sottish pretenders to astrology are in their own concerns: It

relates to Partridge the almanack-maker; I have consulted the stars of his

nativity by my own rules, and find he will infallibly die upon the 29th of

March next, about eleven at night, of a raging fever; therefore I advise him

The Bickerstaff-Partridge Papers

to consider of it, and settle his affairs in time.

The month of April will be observable for the death of many great

persons. On the 4th will die the Cardinal de Noailles, Archbishop of Paris:

On the 11th the young Prince of Asturias, son to the Duke of Anjou: On

the 14th a great peer of this realm will die at his country-house: On the

19th an old layman of great fame for learning: and on the 23rd an eminent

goldsmith in Lombard-Street. I could mention others, both at home and

abroad, if I did not consider it is of very little use or instruction to the

reader, or to the world.

As to publick affairs: On the 7th of this month there will be an

insurrection in Dauphine, occasion'd by the oppressions of the people,

which will not be quieted in some months.

On the 15th will be a violent storm on the south-east coast of France,

which will destroy many of their ships, and some in the very harbour.

The 19th will be famous for the revolt of a whole province or kingdom,

excepting one city, by which the affairs of a certain prince in the alliance

will take a better face.

May, against common conjectures, will be no very busy month in

Europe, but very signal for the death of the Dauphin, which will happen

on the 7th, after a short fit of sickness, and grievous torments with the

strangury. He dies less lamented by the court than the kingdom.

On the 9th a Mareschal of France will break his leg by a fall from his

horse. I have not been able to discover whether he will then die or not.

On the 11th will begin a most important siege, which the eyes of all

Europe will be upon: I cannot be more particular: for in relating affairs

that so nearly concern the Confederates, and consequently this Kingdom, I

am forced to confine myself, for several reasons very obvious to the

reader.

On the 15th news will arrive of a very surprizing event, than which

nothing could be more unexpected.

On the 19th three noble ladies of this Kingdom will, against all

expectation, prove with child, to the great joy of their husbands.

On the 23rd a famous buffoon of the play-house will die a ridiculous

death, suitable to his vocation.

The Bickerstaff-Partridge Papers

June. This month will be distinguish'd at home, by the utter dispersing

of those ridiculous deluded enthusiasts, commonly call'd the Prophets;

occasion'd chiefly by seeing the time come that many of their prophecies

should be fulfill'd, and then finding themselves deceiv'd by contrary events.

It is indeed to be admir'd how any deceiver can be so weak, to foretel

things near at hand, when a very few months must of necessity discover

the impostor to all the world; in this point less prudent than common

almanack-makers, who are so wise to wonder in generals, and talk

dubiously, and leave to the reader the business of interpreting.

On the 1st of this month a French general will be killed by a random

shot of a cannon-ball.

On the 6th a fire will break out in the suburbs of Paris, which will

destroy above a thousand houses; and seems to be the foreboding of what

will happen, to the surprize of all Europe, about the end of the following

month.

On the 10th a great battle will be fought, which will begin at four of

the clock in the afternoon; and last till nine at night with great obstinacy,

but no very decisive event. I shall not name the place, for the reasons

aforesaid; but the commanders on each left wing will be killed. -- I see

bonfires, and hear the noise of guns for a victory.

On the 14th there will be a false report of the French king's death.

On the 20th Cardinal Portocarero will die of a dysentery, with great

suspicion of poison; but the report of his intention to revolt to King

Charles, will prove false.

July. The 6th of this month a certain general will, by a glorious action,

recover the reputation he lost by former misfortunes.

On the 12th a great commander will die a prisoner in the hands of his

enemies.

On the 14th a shameful discovery will be made of a French Jesuit,

giving poison to a great foreign general; and when he is put to the torture,

will make wonderful discoveries.

In short this will prove a month of great action, if I might have liberty

to relate the particulars.

At home, the death of an old famous senator will happen on the 15th at

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TheBickerstaff-PartridgePapers1TheBickerstaff-PartridgePapersJonathanSwiftTheBickerstaff-PartridgePapers2PREDICTIONSFORTHEYEAR1708Whereinthemonth,anddayofthemontharesetdown,thepersonsnamed,andthegreatactionsandeventsofnextyearparticularlyrelated,aswillcometopass.WrittentopreventthepeopleofEnglandfro...

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