Multivariate Optimized Certainty Equivalent Risk Measures and their Numerical Computation Sarah Kaaka Anis MatoussiAchraf Tamtalini

2025-05-02 0 0 581.16KB 33 页 10玖币
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Multivariate Optimized Certainty Equivalent Risk
Measures and their Numerical Computation
Sarah Kaaka¨ı Anis Matoussi Achraf Tamtalini §
Abstract
We present a framework for constructing multivariate risk measures that is inspired from
univariate Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk measures. We show that this new
class of risk measures verifies the desirable properties such as convexity, monotonocity and
cash invariance. We also address numerical aspects of their computations using stochastic
algorithms instead of using Monte Carlo or Fourier methods that do not provide any error
of the estimation.
Keywords: Multivariate risk measures, Optimized certainty equivalent, Numerical methods,
stochastic algorithms, risk allocations.
Introduction
One of the major concerns in finance is how to assess or quantify the risk associated with
a random cashflow in the future. Starting with the pioneering work of Markowitz (1952),
the risk associated with a random outcome was quantified by its variance. Then, Artzner
et al. (1999) published their famous seminal paper in which they introduce the theory of risk
measures. In their paper, risk measures were defined as a map verifying certain properties,
which are called “axioms”, namely: Subadditivity, translation invariance, monotonocity and
Acknowledgements: The authors research is part of the ANR project DREAMeS (ANR-21-CE46-0002) and
benefited from the support of the ”Chair Risques Emergents en Assurance” under the aegis of Fondation du Risque,
a joint initiative by Le Mans University and Cov´ea.
Laboratoire Manceau de Math´ematiques & FR CNRS No2962, Institut du Risque et de l’Assurance,
Le Mans University.
Laboratoire Manceau de Math´ematiques & FR CNRS No2962, Institut du Risque et de l’Assurance,
Le Mans University and Ecole Polytechnique.
§Laboratoire Manceau de Math´ematiques & FR CNRS No2962, Institut du Risque et de l’Assurance,
Le Mans University.
1
arXiv:2210.13825v2 [math.OC] 6 Dec 2022
positive homogeneity. Such risk measures are called coherent risk measures. Many extensions
have been proposed and studied in the literature after the introduction of the axiomatic ap-
proach. One important extension is the notion of convex risk measure developed by ollmer
and Schied (2002) and Frittelli and Gianin (2002) where the subadditivity and positive ho-
mogeneity properties were replaced by the weaker property of convexity. The latter reflects
the fact that diversification decreases the risk. In the banking industry, one of the most
popular risk measures is the Value at Risk (VaR in short). This is due first, to its financial
interpretation and second, to its easy and fast implementation. Indeed, VaR is defined as
the minimal cash amount that needed to be added to a financial position in order to have a
probability of losses below a certain threshold. Its computation amounts to the calculation
of a quantile of the portfolio distribution. Nevertheless, VaR suffers from one drawback: it
does not verify the convexity property. This has prompted the search for new examples of
risk measures, the most prominent being the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), the entropic
risk measure and the utility based risk measure (also known as shortfall risk measure).
Some decision making problem based on utility functions are closely related to risk measures.
One can cite the optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) that was first introduced by Ben-Tal
and Teboulle (1986). The idea behind the definition of OCE is as follows: Assume that a
decision maker, with some utility function u, is expecting a random income Xin the future
and can consume a part of it at present. If he chooses to consume mdollars, the resulting
present value of Xis then P(X, m):=m+E[u(Xm)]. Hence, one can define the sure
present value of X(i.e., its certainty equivalent) as the result of an optimal allocation of X
between present and future consumption, that is the decision maker will try to find mthat
maximizes P(X, m). The main properties of the OCE were studied in Ben-Tal and Teboulle
(2007) where it is showed that the opposite of the OCE provides a wide family of risk mea-
sures that verifies the axiomatic formalism of convex risk measures. They also proved that
several risk measures, such as CVaR and the entropic risk measure, can be derived as special
cases of the OCE by using particular utility functions (see also Cherny and Kupper (2007)).
From a systemic point of view, the financial crisis of 2008 has demonstrated the need for
novel approaches that capture the risk of a system of financial institutions. More precisely,
given a network/system of dNdifferent but dependent portfolios X:= (X1, ..., Xd), we
are interested in measuring/quantifying the risk carried by this system of portfolios. A
classical approach consists in first aggregating the portfolios using some aggregation func-
tion Λ : RdRand then apply some univariate risk measure applied to the aggregated
portfolio. In practice, most of the times the aggregation function is just the sum of the
components, i.e., Λ(x) = Pd
i=1 xi. This will result in having a systemic risk measure of
the form: R(X) = η(Λ(X)) = η(Pd
i=1 Xi), where ηis a univariate risk measure, such as
the VaR, CVaR, entropic risk measure, etc. The mechanism behind this approach is also
known as “Aggregate then Inject Cash” mechanism (see Biagini et al. (2019)). However,
this approach suffers from one major drawback: While it quantifies the systemic risk carried
2
by the whole system, it does not provide risk levels of each portfolio, and thus, one could
not have a ranking of portfolios in terms of their systemic riskiness. One way to remedi-
ate to this, is to consider the reverse mechanism, that is to “Inject Cash then Aggregate”.
This consists in associating to each portfolio a risk measure and summing up the resulting
risk levels. This results in considering systemic risk measures R(X) of the following form:
R(X) = Pd
i=1 ηi(Xi), where ηi’s are the univariate risk measures associated to each portfolio.
Obviously, one could use the same univariate for all portfolios, that is ηi=η, i∈ {1, ..., d}.
However, by doing so, we are assuming that the system is made of “isolated” portfolios with
no interdependence structure, and hence, we might be overestimating or underestimating
the systemic risk. This led several authors to look for approaches that address simultane-
ously the design of an overall risk measure and the allocation of this risk measure among the
different components of the system. In this spirit, an extension of shortfall risk measures,
introduced in ollmer and Schied (2002), has been studied in Armenti et al. (2018) based
on multivariate loss functions. However, one should note that, to ensure the existence of
optimal allocation problem, these loss functions must verify a key property: permutation
invariance. In other words, each component of the system is treated as if it has the same risk
profile as all the other components and thus one cannot discriminate a particular component
against one another. Moreover, classical risk measures such that the CVaR and the entropic
risk measure cannot be recovered using multivariate shortfall risk measures, which limit their
use in practice. We will see that, with our multivariate extension of OCE risk measure, the
permutation invariance condition is no longer needed and by choosing the appropriate loss
functions, we can retrieve most of the classical risk measures.
One of the major issues that arises when studying risk measures is their numerical approxima-
tion. The standard VaR can be computed by inverting the simulated empirical distribution
of the financial position using Monte Carlo (see Glasserman (2004) and Glasserman et al.
(2008)). An alternative method for computing VaR and CVaR is to use stochastic algorithms
(SA). The rational idea behind this perspective comes from the fact that both VaR and CVaR
are the solutions and the value of the same convex optimization problem as pointed out in
Rockafellar and Uryasev (2002) and the fact that the objective function is expressed as an
expectation. This was done in Bardou et al. (2009), where they prove the consistency and
the asymptotic normality of the estimators. In the same direction, in Kaaka¨ı et al. (2022),
we extended the work of Dunkel and Weber (2010) to approximate multivariate shortfall risk
measures using stochastic algorithms. In Neufeld (2008), they developed numerical schemes
for the computations of univariate OCE using Fourier transform methods.
The outline of this paper is as follows: in section 1, we give the definition of multivariate
OCE by introducing first the class of appropriate loss functions. Then, we show that this
class of risk measures verifies the desirable properties. We also characterize the optimal so-
lutions, give a dual representation and study the sensitivity with respect to external shocks.
Finally, section 2treats the computational aspects of approximating multivariate OCE using
3
1. Multivariate OCE
a deterministic scheme and a stochastic one.
1 Multivariate OCE
Let (Ω,F, P ) a probability space and we denote by L0(Rd) the space of F- measurable
random vectors taking values in Rd. For x, y in Rd, we denote by || · || the Euclidean norm
and x·y=Pxiyi. For a function f:Rd[−∞,], we define fthe convex conjugate of
fas f(y) = supx{x·yf(x)}. The space L0(Rd) inherits the lattice structure of Rdand
hence, we can use the classical notations in Rdin a P-almost-surely sens. We will say for
example, for X, Y L0(Rd) that XYif P(XY) = 1. To alleviate the notations, we
will drop the reference to Rdin L0(Rd) whenever it is unnecessary. For Q= (Q1, ..., Qd) a
vector of probabilities, we will write QPif for all i= 1, ..., d, we have QiP. In this
section, we introduce the notion of multivariate Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) and
give its main properties. The latter is an extension of univariate OCE that was introduced
and studied in details in Ben-Tal and Teboulle (2007). First, we start by giving the definition
of a multivariate loss function that will be used in the rest of the paper. For the rest of the
paper, the random vector X= (X1, ..., Xd)L0represents profits and losses of dportfolios.
Definition 1.1. A function l:Rd7→ (−∞,]is called a loss function, if it satisfies the
following properties:
1. lis nondecreasing, that is if xycomponentwise, then l(x)l(y).
2. lis lower-semicontinuous and convex.
3. l(0) = 0 and l(x)>Pd
i=1 xi,x6= 0.
For integrability reasons, we will work in the multivariate Orlicz heart defined as:
Mθ:={XL0:E[θ(λX)] <,λ > 0},
where θ(x) = l(|x|), x Rd. On this space, we define the Luxembourg norm as:
||X||θ:=λ > 0, E θ|X|
λ1.
Under the Luxembourg norm, Mθis a Banach lattice and its dual with respect to this norm
is given by the Orlicz space Lθ:
Lθ:={XL0, E[θ(λX)] <,for some λ > 0}.
We also introduce the set of d-dimensional measure densities in Lθ, that is:
Qθ:=dQ
dP := (Z1, ..., Zd), Z Lθ, Zk0 and E[Zk] = 1.
4
1. Multivariate OCE
Note that for QQθand XMθ,dQ
dP ·XL1, thanks to Fenchel inequality and for the
sake of simplicity, we will write EQ[X]:=E[dQ/dP ·X]. We refer to Appendix B in Armenti
et al. (2018) for more details about multivariate Orlicz spaces.
Definition 1.2. Assume lis a loss function. The multivariate OCE risk measure is defined
for every XMθas:
R(X) = inf
wRd(d
X
i=1
wi+E[l(Xw)]).(1.1)
Example 1. When d= 1, we can recover some important convex risk measures such CVaR
(also called Expected Shortfall or Average Value at Risk) and Entropic risk measure.
1. CVaR: Let α(0,1) and take l(x) = 1
1αx+, then the associated risk measure is the
CVaR (see Rockafellar and Uryasev (2002)).
2. Polynomial loss function: For an integer γ > 1, the polynomial loss function is defined
by: l(x) = ([1+x]+)γ1
γ. When γ= 2, the corresponding risk measure is the Monotone
Mean-Variance (see ˇ
Cern`y et al. (2012)).
3. Entropic risk measure: Fix λ > 0and let l(x):=exp(λx)1
λ. Then, the problem in (1.1)
can be explicitly solved and the optimal wand R(X)are given by:
w=1
λlog(E[eλX ]), R(X) = w=1
λlog(E[eλX ]).
Using univariate loss functions, we can construct multivariate loss functions in the follow-
ing way: Given l1, ..., ldunivariate loss functions and a nonnegative, convex and lower-
semicontinuous function Λ : RR+with Λ(0) = 0, one can define a multivariate loss
function as follows:
l(x):=
d
X
i=1
li(xi) + Λ(x).(1.2)
It is easy to see that lverifies all the conditions in the definition 1.1. Note that by taking
Λthe null function, the corresponding multivariate OCE boils down to a sum of univariate
OCE. It is in this function Λwhere the dependence between the different components in the
system is taken into account. In this paper, we will focus on the following multivariate loss
functions inspired from the univariate risk measures above:
l(x) =
d
X
i=1
eλixi1
λi
+αePd
i=1 λixi, λi>0, α 0,(1.3)
l(x) =
d
X
i=1
([1 + xi]+)θi1
θi
+αX
i<j
([1 + xi]+)θi
θi
([1 + xi]+)θj
θj
, θi>1, α 0,(1.4)
l(x) =
d
X
i=1
x+
i
1βi
+αX
i<j
x+
i
1βi
x+
j
1βj
,0< βi<1, α 0.(1.5)
5
摘要:

MultivariateOptimizedCertaintyEquivalentRiskMeasuresandtheirNumericalComputation*SarahKaaka„AnisMatoussi…AchrafTamtalini§AbstractWepresentaframeworkforconstructingmultivariateriskmeasuresthatisinspiredfromunivariateOptimizedCertaintyEquivalent(OCE)riskmeasures.Weshowthatthisnewclassofriskmeasuresv...

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