1 Fleet-Level Environmental Assessments for Feasibility of Aviation Emission Reduction Goals

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Fleet-Level Environmental Assessments for

Feasibility of Aviation Emission Reduction Goals

Kolawole Ogunsina, Hsun Chao, Nithin Jojo Kolencherry, Samarth Jain, Kushal Moolchandani, William Crossley,

and Daniel DeLaurentis

Abstract—The International Air Transport Association (IATA)

is one of several organizations that have presented goals for

future CO2emissions from commercial aviation with the intent

of alleviating the associated environmental impacts. These goals

include attaining carbon-neutral growth in the year 2020 and

total aviation CO2emissions in 2050 equal to 50% of 2005

aviation CO2emissions. This paper presents the use of a

simulation-based approach to predict future CO2emissions from

commercial aviation based upon a set of scenarios developed as

part of the Aircraft Technology Modeling and Assessment project

within ASCENT, the FAA Center of Excellence for Alternative

Jet Fuels and the Environment. Results indicate that, in future

scenarios with increasing demand for air travel, it is difﬁcult to

reduce CO2emissions in 2050 to levels equal to or below 2005

levels, although neutral CO2growth after 2020 may be possible.

Index Terms—Carbon Emission, Commercial Aviation, Air-

craft Technology, Modeling-Based Forecasting.

I. INTRODUCTION

TO encourage the reduction of negative environmental

impact from an important engineering system – in this

case, air transportation – goals that set challenging targets

for future environmental impact can be important. This paper

assesses differences between predicted carbon emissions from

a simulation tool that models numerous aspects of commercial

aviation and the carbon emission reduction goals from the

International Air Transport Association (IATA). These future

CO2predictions use various economic conditions and technol-

ogy improvement scenarios; other than a simple carbon pricing

model, the scenarios do not incorporate other policies.

IATA – which represents airlines and over 80% of world-

wide aviation activity, and whose formation predates that of

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) – provides

technical and other input for airline regulation and is charged

by governments to regulate various aspects of international

aviation. IATA recently called for a greater urgency in the

partnership between airlines and governments to ensure avia-

tion remains on the leading front for industries in sustainably

managing the effect of climate change [1]. IATA believes that

an airline-government partnership is important for creating

feasible and acceptable policies for reducing the environmental

impact of commercial aviation and also vital to setting goals

to evaluate the efﬁcacy of those policies. The current IATA

K. Ogunsina, H. Chao, N. Kolencherry, S. Jain, and K. Moolchandani are

graduate researchers in the School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Purdue

University.

D. DeLaurentis and W. Crossley are Professors of Aeronautics and Astro-

nautics, Purdue University.

Manuscript received February 2, 2018; revised April 24, 2018.

reduction goals include carbon neutral growth from 2020 and

cutting net CO2emission to half of their 2005 values by 2050

[1], [2]. Fig. 1 presents these goals.

Fig. 1. Aviation CO2emissions, envisioned reductions, and IATA goals [2].

The research method consists of two steps. In the ﬁrst step,

the authors participated with their partners in ASCENT (the

Aviation Sustainability Center), the FAA Center of Excellence

for Alternative Jet Fuels and Environment, working on the

project “Aircraft Technology Modeling and Assessment” to

deﬁne several future commercial aviation scenarios [3]. These

scenarios emerged from the data obtained from participants of

a two-phase workshop. Workshop participants helped to deﬁne

descriptors that would describe future scenarios of the U.S.

commercial aviation industry; these included Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) growth rate, population growth rate, energy

or fuel prices, and rate of aircraft technology development.

For each of these descriptors, the workshop participants also

helped set nominal, minimum and maximum levels. Each

future scenario uses a different combination of these descrip-

tor levels. The ASCENT Aircraft Technology and Modeling

Assessment team selected combinations that sought to span a

broad range of possible future outcomes.

In the second step, the authors of this paper performed

simulations of these future scenarios for commercial avia-

tion in the U.S. using Fleet-Level Environmental Evaluation

Tool (FLEET). FLEET can assess environmental impact of

commercial aviation in the U.S., particularly ﬂeet-level CO2

emissions, with considerations of advanced concept of aircraft,

airline operations, and eco-friendly policies for the U.S. com-

mercial aviation industries [4]–[12]. The backbone of FLEET

is a resource allocation problem that mimics the behavior of

airlines assigning their ﬂeet of aircraft on each route in their

networks. Using a series of modules that represent various

arXiv:2210.11302v1 [physics.soc-ph] 16 Sep 2022

aspects of the commercial aviation system connected by

feedback loops, FLEET allows airline ticket fares, passenger

demand, airline ﬂeet size and airline ﬂeet composition to

evolve over time.

By including routes and operations that reﬂect most of

the “U.S. touching” airline operations (i.e., routes that have

at least one airport in the U.S.), the results from FLEET

provide a prediction of the CO2emissions trends from U.S.

commercial aviation. Comparing the carbon emission trends

from the simulation results with the IATA emission reduction

goals, revealed that – for the scenarios studies here that

emphasize potential future economic growth and potential

future technology development – the predicted C O2emissions

do not quite reach the levels speciﬁed by the IATA goals.

II. FUTURE SCENARIO DESCRIPTION

To generate the potential future commercial aviation sce-

narios, the ASCENT Aircraft Technology Modeling and As-

sessment project team conducted two phases of workshops

that gathered feedback from several industry, government and

academic participants to select scenario descriptors, range of

values for those descriptors and the importance of those de-

scriptors. This effort led to developing scenarios by combining

different levels of aircraft technology development, economic

growth, and energy price, as Fig. 2 presents. Other possible

scenario combinations not represented in Fig. 2 were deemed

impractical by workshop participants.

The Aircraft Technology levels describe the predicted per-

formance, particularly fuel consumption, of future aircraft

and engine combinations as well as the Entry Into Service

(EIS) dates for these future aircraft. A “High” level indicates

future aircraft with very good performance becoming available

to the airline soon. “Nominal” aircraft technology reﬂects

performance levels and EIS dates that follow a consensus

of the current aircraft and engine development trajectory.

A “Low” aircraft technology level indicates future aircraft

with poorer performance than those of the “Nominal” level;

however, these aircraft will still show improvements over

today’s generation of aircraft. While there is great interest

in ideas like biofuels to reduce life-cycle CO2emissions

and electric or hybrid electric propulsion that might make

more carbon-efﬁcient means to provide aircraft thrust and

power, the aircraft technology level here does not distinguish

these speciﬁc technologies. All of these are reﬂected in an

equivalent level of improved fuel consumption in the future

aircraft models. This means that, where Fig. 1 shows potential

improvements from “technology” and “biofuels and radical

technology” separately, the simulations here treat these as

aggregated technology-driven improvements.

The Economic Growth descriptors illustrate the economic

condition around the world, primarily described by Gross

Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. The descriptor inﬂu-

ences the amount of passenger demand and distribution of

this demand across the airline network. In this study, authors

considered GDP growth rates for countries in North America,

South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. As shown

in Table I, “Very High” and “High” levels indicate the same

GDP growth rates for the countries in the six continents. The

very high setting has no carbon pricing in addition to high

GDP growth rates, which will lead to the highest possible

demand. A “Nominal” level indicates lower GDP growth rate

for each continent, while a “Low” level indicates the lowest

GDP growth rate.

Aircraft Technology Economic Growth Energy Price

Scenarios

Low

High

Nominal

High

Nominal

Low

High

Very High

Very High Low w/o

CO2price

Low w/o

CO2price

Low Demand

+ Low R&D

Environmental

Bounds –High

High Demand

+ Low R&D

Very High Demand

+ Low R&D

Current Trend

Best Guess

Low Demand

+ High R&D

Environmental

Bounds –Low

Current Trends

+ High R&D

High Demand

+ High R&D

Very High Demand

+ High R&D

Also evalu ate with mission spec. changesScenarios with noise constraint

Fig. 2. Scenario Tree Overview

Lastly, the Energy Price descriptors provide different trends

for fuel price and any potential carbon emission price trends.

The energy price descriptors inﬂuence the cost of operating

the airline ﬂeet, which cascades through ticket price to a

price-elasticity response in demand. The values for the energy

price descriptor shown in Table II represent oil prices in 2050.

Additionally, the cost of CO2emission linearly increase from

zero CO2price in 2020 to 2050 to reach the cost of CO2

emission listed in Table II for each scenario.

The Mission Speciﬁcation Change (MSC) descriptor

presents an additional means of mitigating commercial avi-

ation carbon emissions. In Fig. 2, a blue dashed-dotted line

surrounds all of the scenarios that use a high technology level

as part of their deﬁnition. For these, a second version of

these scenarios considered the potential impact of reducing

the cruise speed of the new aircraft acquired by the airline.

Designing a new aircraft for a slower cruise speed than

today’s current aircraft could decrease the carbon emissions

per passenger on the new aircraft. For the aircraft considered

in this study, the cruise speed reduction resulted in per ﬂight

fuel consumption reductions from 5% to 15% below an aircraft

designed to ﬂy at speeds consistent with today’s transport

aircraft.

While the main focus of this effort considered future CO2

emissions, noise around airports is another environmental

impact of aviation. The “very high demand” scenarios would

lead to a high number of ﬂights to meet the demand. The “en-

vironmental bounds – low” scenario provided a lower bound

for predicted CO2emission; in other words, this scenario

should lead to the lowest possible CO2emissions. For the

“very high demand” scenarios and the “environmental bounds

– low” scenario, the allocation problem in FLEET included

constraints to keep the noise level around an airport below

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1Fleet-LevelEnvironmentalAssessmentsforFeasibilityofAviationEmissionReductionGoalsKolawoleOgunsina,HsunChao,NithinJojoKolencherry,SamarthJain,KushalMoolchandani,WilliamCrossley,andDanielDeLaurentisAbstractTheInternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA)isoneofseveralorganizationsthathavepresentedgoals...

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