Spotify（声田）研究（英文版）

2025-04-27 0 0 1.16MB 20 页 10玖币

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Important disclosures appear at the back of this report

GP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

GP Bullhound Inc is a member of FINRA

GP Bullhound Sidecar III is an investor in Spotify. GP Bullhound is not or has not been engaged as an

advisor to or received compensation from Spotify.

Dealmakers in Technology

$55bn by 2020

SPOTIFY

Dealmakers in Technology

03 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

04 SCENARIO OVERVIEW

05 EXPLOSIVE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH

06 PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS VS. TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS

07 ROOM TO INCREASE MARKET PENETRATION

08 TIMING OF PROFITABILITY

09 NEW CONTRACTS WITH LABELS WILL DRIVE GROSS MARGIN

09 STOCK MARKET INTRODUCTION & LONG TERM VALUATION

10 SPOTIFY VS. APPLE

CONTENTS

200M PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS / $55BN VALUATION

OUR UPDATED VALUATION THESIS BY 2020

SPOTIFY: $55 BILLION BY 2020

SPOTIFY UPDATE

» GivenSpotify’sexplosivegrowthwebelievethermwillbevaluedat$55bnby2020

» OurtargetstockmarketintroductionvaluationforSpotifyisover$20bn

» Spotifyistrendingtowards100mpremiumsubscribersbymid-2018–estimatespoint

toward200mbytheendof2020

» Weexpectemergingmarketstodrivefuturegrowthwhichwilllikelydiluteaveragerevenue

perpremiumsubscriber–wehavethereforedecreasedourARPPSestimatesby10%to$80

» AsSpotify’sambitionevolvesthecompanyisnowseekingtobecomethethirdlargestplayer

intermsofadvertising–behindGoogleandFacebook–whichwilldriveadrevenuefrom

non-premiumsubscribers

» Grossmarginwillsteadilyincreaseduetomorebenecialagreementswithlabels–

estimatedlevelsareconsistentwithourpreviousresearchreports

» Premiumsubscribersasapercentageoftotalsubscribersisestimatedtobe40%in2020–

slightlybelowtoday’slevelof43%

» Ourvaluationreasoningandmultipleshavenotchangedsincethelastreport–

subscribergrowthhashoweverbeenstrongerthanweanticipated

October 2017

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

TARGET STOCK MARKET INTRODUCTION VALUATION OVER $20BN

OUR UPDATED STOCK MARKET INTRODUCTION THESIS

Stock Market Introduction 2020

Implied Market Cap $23 Bn $55 Bn

Premiumsubscribers(m) 70 200

Revenueperpremiumsubscriber($/year) 87 80

Totalpremiumsubscriberrevenue($m) 6,090 16,000

Non-premiumsubscribers(m) 100 300

Revenuenon-premiumsubscriber($/year) 5 12

Adrevenues($m) 475 3,600

Adrevenue(%) 7% 18%

TOTAL REVENUES 6,565 19,600

COGSpremiumsubscriber -5,177 -12,320

COGSadrevenueus -285 -1,800

TOTAL COGS -5,462 -14,120

Gross margin 17% 28%

R&D -460 -1,176

R&D 7% 6%

SG&A -1,313 -1,764

SG&A 20% 9%

EBIT -669 2,540

EBIT% -10% 13%

AddbackD&A 66 196

D&A 1% 1%

EBITDA -603 2,736

EBITDA % -9% 14%

EV/Salesmultiple 3.5x 2.8x

EV/EBITDAmultiple n.m. 20x

EV 22,650 54,720

Netdebt -200 0

Marketcap 22,850 54,720

NOSOFD(M) 4.5 4.5

Shareprice 5,078 12,160

RETURN FROM TODAY 1.4x 3.3x

ImpliedEV/Revenue 3.5x 2.8x

ImpliedEV/Grossprotmultiple 20.5x 10.0x

ImpliedEV/EBITmultiple n.m. 21.5x

SCENARIO

Overview

Source:Annualreports,CapitalIQ,GPBullhoundanalysis

Note:‘returnfromtoday’referstothereturnaninvestorreceivesifpurchasingashareinSpotifyatthepriceofthelatestsecondarydeal

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摘要：

ImportantdisclosuresappearatthebackofthisreportGPBullhoundLLPisauthorisedandregulatedbytheFinancialConductAu horityGPBullhoundIncisamemberofFINRAGPBullhoundSidecarIIIisaninvestorinSpotify.GPBullhoundisnotorhasnotbeenengagedasanadvisortoorreceivedcompensationfromSpotify.DealmakersinTechnology$55bnb...

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Spotify（声田）研究（英文版）

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