"I don't think lenders are going to be interested in extending a lot of debt in this environment," said
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, a macroeconomic consulting firm. "Nor do I
think households are going to be interested in taking on a lot of debt."
In housing, consumers have already shown a slow response to low rates. Applications for new
mortgages have decreased this year to a 10-year low, according to the Mortgage Bankers
Association. Sales of furniture and furnishings remain 22% below their pre-recession peak,
according to Spending Pulse, a research report by MasterCard Advisors.
Credit card rates have actually gone up slightly in the past year. The one bright spot in lending is the
number of auto loans, which is up from last year. But some economists say that confidence among
car buyers is hitting new lows.
For Xavier Walter, a former mortgage banker who with his wife, Danielle, accumulated$20 000 in
credit card debt, low rates will not change his spending habits.
As the housing market topped out five years ago, he lost his six-figure income. He and his wife
were able to modify the mortgage on their four-bedroom house in Medford, New Jersey, as well as
negotiate lower credit card payments.
Two years ago, Mr. Walter, a 34-year-old father of three, started an energy business. He has sworn
off credit. "I'm not going to go back in debt ever again," he said. "If I can't pay for it in cash, I don't
want it."
Until now, one of the biggest restraints on consumer spending has been a debt aftereffect. Since
August 2008, when household debt peaked at$12.41 trillion, it has declined by about$1.2 trillion,
according to an analysis by Moody's Analytics of data from the Federal Reserve and Equifax, the
credit agency. A large portion of that, though, was simply written off by lenders as borrowers
defaulted on loans.
By other measures, households have improved their position. The proportion of after-tax income
that households spend to remain current on loan payments has fallen.
Still, household debt remains high. That presents a paradox: many economists argue that the
economy cannot achieve true health until debt levels decline. But credit, made attractive by low
rates, is a time-tested way to increase consumer spending.
With new risks of another downturn, economists worry that it will take years for debt to return to
manageable levels. If the economy contracts again, said George Magnus, senior adviser at UBS,
then "you could find a lot of households in a debt trap which they probably can never get out of."
Mortgage lenders, meanwhile, burned by the housing crash, are extra careful about approving new
loans. In June, for instance, Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage buyer in the United States, said that
borrowers whose existing debt exceeded 45 to 50% of their income would be required to have
stronger "compensating" factors, which might include higher savings.
Even those borrowers in strong financial positions are asked to provide unusual amounts of
paperwork. Bobby and Katie Smith have an extremely good credit record, tiny student debt and a
combined six-figure income. For part of their down payment, they planned to use about$5 000 they
had received as wedding gifts in February.