Vernor Vinge - Technological Singularity

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Technological Singularity by Vernor VingeMagazine: Whole Earth Review

Issue: December 10, 1993

Title: Technological Singularity

Author: Vernor Vinge

Technological Singularity

by Vernor Vinge

Vernor Vinge's vision of a technological "singularity" in humanity's

near future has haunted me since I first read of it in his science-fiction

novel, Marooned in Realtime (1986). I'm persuaded that the acceleration of

technology-acceleration is even now distorting human institutions and

expectations, whether or not we are approaching a metaphorical "event

horizon" beyond which everything becomes unrecognizable.

When I invited Vinge to write something about his current views on the

singularity for the recent issue of Whole Earth Review that I guest-edited,

he replied that he had just presented a paper on the subject for the

VISION-21 Symposium, sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center and the

Ohio Aerospace Institute. In due course he revised the piece and sent it

along. I can think of no other technical paper that has so many references

to science-fiction literature, as well it should.

Vinge is a mathematician at San Diego State University, specializing

in distributed computing and computer architecture. One of his short

stories, "True Names" (1981), is often mentioned along with John Brunner's

Shockwave Rider and William Gibson's Neuromancer as an inspiration to the

current generation of online computer pioneers. Vinge's two "Realtime"

novels (combined in Across Realtime -- 1991) have been nominated for Hugo

Awards, science fiction's top prize. His new novel, A Fire Upon the Deep,

won the 1993 Hugo; it's reviewed on p. 95.

--Stewart Brand

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY

(This article may be reproduced for noncommercial

purposes if it is copied in its entirety,

including this notice.)

A slightly different version of this article was presented at the

VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio

Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993. --Vernor Vinge

1. What Is The Singularity?

The acceleration of technological progress has been the central

feature of this century. We are on the edge of change comparable to the

rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the

imminent creation by technology of entities with greater-than-human

intelligence. Science may achieve this breakthrough by several means (and

this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur):

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