Association. Sales of furniture and furnishings remain 22% below their pre-recession peak,
according to Spending Pulse, a research report by MasterCard Advisors.
Credit card rates have actually gone up slightly in the past year. The one bright spot in lending
is the number of auto loans, which is up from last year. But some economists say that confidence
among car buyers is hitting new lows.
For Xavier Walter, a former mortgage banker who with his wife, Danielle, accumulated$20
000 in credit card debt, low rates will not change his spending habits.
As the housing market topped out five years ago, he lost his six-figure income. He and his wife
were able to modify the mortgage on their four-bedroom house in Medford, New Jersey, as well as
negotiate lower credit card payments.
Two years ago, Mr. Walter, a 34-year-old father of three, started an energy business. He has
sworn off credit. "I'm not going to go back in debt ever again," he said. "If I can't pay for it in cash,
I don't want it."
Until now, one of the biggest restraints on consumer spending has been a debt aftereffect.
Since August 2008, when household debt peaked at$12.41 trillion, it has declined by about$1.2
trillion, according to an analysis by Moody's Analytics of data from the Federal Reserve and
Equifax, the credit agency. A large portion of that, though, was simply written off by lenders as
borrowers defaulted on loans.
By other measures, households have improved their position. The proportion of after-tax
income that households spend to remain current on loan payments has fallen.
Still, household debt remains high. That presents a paradox: many economists argue that the
economy cannot achieve true health until debt levels decline. But credit, made attractive by low
rates, is a time-tested way to increase consumer spending.
With new risks of another downturn, economists worry that it will take years for debt to return
to manageable levels. If the economy contracts again, said George Magnus, senior adviser at UBS,
then "you could find a lot of households in a debt trap which they probably can never get out of."
Mortgage lenders, meanwhile, burned by the housing crash, are extra careful about approving
new loans. In June, for instance, Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage buyer in the United States, said
that borrowers whose existing debt exceeded 45 to 50% of their income would be required to have
stronger "compensating" factors, which might include higher savings.
Even those borrowers in strong financial positions are asked to provide unusual amounts of
paperwork. Bobby and Katie Smith have an extremely good credit record, tiny student debt and a
combined six-figure income. For part of their down payment, they planned to use about$5 000 they
had received as wedding gifts in February.
But the lender would not accept that money unless the Smiths provided a certified letter from
each of 14 guests, stating that the money was a gift, rather than a loan.
"We laughed for a good 15 or 20 minutes." recalled Mr. Smith. 34.
Mr. Smith, a program director for a radio station in Orlando, Florida, said they ended up using
other savings for their down payment to buy a$300 000 four-bedroom house in April.