Michael Crichton - State Of Fear

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* Y. Choi, H.-S. Jung, K.-Y. Nam, and W.-T. Kwon, “Adjusting urban bias in the regional mean
surface temperature series of South Korea, 1968–99,”International Journal of Climatology 23 (2003):
577–91.
† http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2002/leicester_2002/2253636.stm. The BBC gives no
scientific reference for the eight-degree claim.
‡ LA population is 14,531,000; Berkeley is 6,250,000; New York is 19,345,000.
* South Pole, Mauna Loa: C. D. Keeling, T. P. Whorf, and the Carbon Dioxide Research Group,
Scripps Institute of Oceanography (SIO), University of California, La Jolla, CA 92093, U.S.A.;
Seychelles: Thomas J. Conway, Pieter Tans, Lee S. Waterman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80303.
See http:// cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm.
* For a summary, see Ian G. McKendry, 2003, “Applied climatology,” Progress in Physical Geography
27, 4:597–606. “Recent studies suggest that attempts to remove the ‘urban bias’ from long-term climate
records (and hence identify the magnitude of the enhanced greenhouse effect) may be overly simplistic.”
* Alston Chase,In a Dark Wood , p. 157ff. See also p. 404ff.
* Fred Pearce, “Africans go back to the land as plants reclaim the desert,”New Scientist 175, 21
September 2002, pp. 4–5. “Africa’s deserts are in retreat…Analysis of satellite images…reveals that
dunes are retreating right across the Sahel region…Vegetation is ousting sand across a swathe of land
stretching…6000 kilometers…. Analysts say the gradual greening has been happening since the mid
1980s, though has gone largely unnoticed.”
* Paul Reiter, et al., “Global warming and malaria: a call for accuracy,”Lancet , 4, no. 1 (June 2004).
“Many of these much-publicized predictions are ill informed and misleading.”
† Discussion in Lomborg, p. 252.
‡ Morjorie L. Reaka-Kudia, et al.,Biodiversity II, Understanding and Protecting our Biological
Resources, Washington: National Academies Press, 1997. “Biologists have come to recognize just how
little we know about the organisms with which we share the planet Earth. In particular, attempts to
determine how many species there are in total have been surprisingly fruitless.” Myers: “We have no way
of knowing the actual extinction rate in the tropical forests, let alone an approximate guess.” In Lomborg,
p. 254.
* Roger J. Braithwaite, “Glacier mass balance, the first 50 years of international monitoring ,”Progress in
Physical Geography 26, no. 1 (2002): 76–95. “There is no obvious common global trend of increasing
glacier melt in recent years.”
† California has 497 glaciers; Raub, et al., 1980; Guyton: 108 glaciers and 401 glacierets,Glaciers of
California , p. 115.
‡ H. Kieffer, et al., 2000, “New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets,”EOS, Transactions,
American Geophysical Union 81: 265, 270–71. See also R. J. Braithwaite and Y. Zhang, “Relationships
between inter-annual variability of glacier mass balance and climate,”Journal of Glaciology 45 (2000):
456–62.
* Betsy Mason, “African Ice Under Wraps,”Nature, 24, November 2003. “Although it’s tempting to
blame the ice loss on global warming, researchers think that deforestation of the mountain’s foothills is the
more likely culprit,” http://www.nature.com/nsu/031117/031117 – 8.html.
Kaser, et al., “Modern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro as evidence of climate change: Observations and
facts,”International Journal of Climatology 24: (2004): 329–39. “In recent years, Kilimanjaro and its
vanishing glaciers have become an ‘icon’ of global warming…[but] processes other than air temperature
control the ice recession…A drastic drop in atmospheric moisture at the end of the 19th century and the
ensuing drier climate conditions are likely forcing glacier retreat.”
† See, for example, http://www.csr.utexas.edu/gmsl/main.html. “Over the last century, global sea-level
change has typically been estimated from tide gauge measurements by long-term averaging. Most recent
estimates of global mean sea-level rise from tide gauge measurements range from 1.7 to 2.4 mm/yr” [that
is, 6” to 9” every hundred years—MC].
‡ Op. cit. Global mean sea-level rise as measured by satellite is 3.1 mm/yr for the last decade or slightly
more than 12” a century. However, satellites show considerable variation. Thus the northern Pacific has
risen, but the southern Pacific has fallen by several millimeters in recent years.
§ Lomborg, pp. 289–90 on inadequacy of IPCC sea-level models.
* See Henderson-Sellers, et al., 1997, “Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change: a post-IPCC
assessment,”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79:9–38. C. Nicholls Landsea, et al.
“Downward Trend in the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes during the past five decades,”
Geophysical Research Letters 23:527–30. 1996. According to the United Nations Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, “Examination of meteorological data fails to support the perception [of
increased frequency and severity of extreme climate events] in the context of a long-term climate
change.” IPCC 1995, p. 11. “Overall, there is no evidence that extreme weather events, or climate
variability, has increased, in a global sense, throughout the twentieth century . . .” IPCC,Climate Change
1995. In the 2001 IPCC report, “No long-term trends evident” for tropical and extratropical storms, and
no systematic changes in the “frequency of tornadoes, thunder days, or hail.”Executive summary , p.2.
For fuller discussion, see Lomborg, p. 292ff.
† Richard Feynman: “Science is what we have learned about how not to fool ourselves.”
* Lomborg, p. 292.
† Stanley A. Changnon, 1999: “Impacts of 1997–98 El Niño–Generated Weather in the United States,”
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80, no. 9: pp. 1819–28. (“The net economic benefit
was surprisingly positive…direct losses nationally were about $4 billion and the benefits were
approximately $19 billion.”)
* Estimate from the White House Science Office for all costs of the scare, including property devaluation
and relocation of power lines. Cited in Park,Voodoo Science, p. 161. (Park was a participant in the
controversy.)
* Most recently,Nature 22 (October 2003): 395–741, stated, with Russia signed on, temperature
affected by Kyoto would be–.02 degrees C by 2050. IPCC models estimate more, but none exceed .15
C. Lomborg, p. 302. Wigley, 1998: “Global warming reductions are small, .08–.28 C.”
* Martin Hoffert, et al., “Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a
Greenhouse Planet,”Science 298 (Nov. 1, 2002): 981–87. “Energy sources that can produce 100 to
300% of present world power consumption without greenhouse emissions do not exist.”
* Some estimates put the number at 30 million deaths.
† Full discussion of DDT in Wildavsky, 1994, pp. 55–80.
‡ Sweeney Committee, 25 April 1972, “DDT is not a carcinogenic hazard to man.” Ruckelshaus banned
it two months later, saying, DDT “poses a carcinogenic risk” to man. He never read the Sweeney report.
* Hayes, 1969.
† John Noble Wilford, “Deaths from DDT Successor Stir Concern,”New York Times, 21 August
1970, p. 1; Wildavsky, 1996, p. 73.
‡ Case references in Sunstein, pp. 200–1.
* James E. Hansen, Makiko Sato, Andrew Lacis, Reto Ruedy, Ina Tegen, and Elaine Matthews,
“Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era,”Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 95 (October
1998): 12753–58.
* See the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis study: Tengs, et al., 1995. For full discussion, see Lomborg,
p. 338ff. He concludes: “When we ignore the cost of our environmental decisions…on other areas…we
are in reality committing statistical murder.” He puts the number of unnecessary dead at 60,000 per year
in the US alone.
* William Arens,The Man-Eating Myth .
* Cannibalism in the American southwest: http://www.nature.com/nature/fow/000907.html; Richard A.
Marlar, Leonard L. Banks, Brian R. Billman, Patricia M. Lambert, and Jennifer Marlar, “Biochemical
evidence of cannibalism at a prehistoric Puebloan site in southwestern Colorado,Nature 407, 74078 (7
Sept. 2000). Among Celts in England:
http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/Info-Office/news/archive/cannibal.htm. Among Neanderthals:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/462048.stm; same issue, Jared M. Diamond, “Archeology, talk of
cannibalism” (“Incontrovertible evidence of cannibalism has been found at a 900-year-old site in the
southwestern United States. Why do horrified critics deny that many societies have found cannibalism
acceptable?”).
* See S. K. Sutherland, et al., “Toxins and mode of envenomation of the common ringed or
blue-banded octopus,”Med.x` J.Aust. 1 (1969): 893–98. Also H. Flecker, et al., “Fatal bite from
octopus,”Med. J.Aust. 2 (1955): 329–31.
† IPCC.Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press,
2001, p. 774: “In climate research and modelling [sic], we should recognize that we are dealing with a
coupled nonlinear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is
not possible.” See also: IPCC.Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change , p. 330. “Natural
climate variability on long time-scales will continue to be problematic for CO2 climate change analysis
and detection.”
* C. Landsea, et al., 2000, “How Much Skill Was There in Forecasting the Very Strong 1997–98 El
Niño?”Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81: 2107-19. “…one could have even less
confidence in anthropogenic global warming studies because of the lack of skill in predicting El
Niño…the successes in ENSO forecasting have been overstated (sometimes drastically) and misapplied
in other arenas.”
* R. Bohm, “Urban bias in temperature time series—a case study for the city of Vienna, Austria,”
Climatic Change 38, (1998): 113–1128. Ian G. McKendry, “Applied Climatology,”Progress in Physical
Geography 27, 4 (2003): 597–606. “Population-based adjustments for the UHI in the USA may be
underestimating the urban effect.”
† L. Chen, et al., 2003, “Characteristics of the heat island effect in Shanghai and its possible
mechanism,”Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20: 991–1001.
‡ D. R. Streutker, “Satellite-measured growth of the urban heat island of Houston, Texas,”Remote
Sensing of Environment 85 (2003): 282–289. “Between 1987 and 1999, the mean nighttime surface
temperature heat island of Houston increased 0.82 ± 0.10 °C.”
MICHAEL
CRICHTON
STATE OF FEAR
A NOVEL
This is a work of fiction. Characters, corporations, institutions, and organizations in this novel are the
product of the author’s imagination, or, if real, are used fictitiously without any intent to describe their
actual conduct. However, references to real people, institutions, and organizations that are documented in
foot notes are accurate. Footnotes are real.
There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such
a trifling investment of fact.
—MARK TWAIN
Within any important issue, there are always aspects no one wishes to discuss.
—GEORGE ORWELL
CONTENTS
E-BOOK EXTRAS
DISCLAIMER
EPIGRAPHS
INTRODUCTION
From the Internal Report to the National Security Council…
I. AKAMAI
PARIS NORD
SUNDAY, MAY 2, 2004
12:00 P.M.
PAHANG
TUESDAY, MAY 11
11:55 A.M.
SHAD THAMES
FRIDAY, MAY 21
11:04 A.M.
TOKYO
TUESDAY, JUNE 1
10:01 A.M.
VANCOUVER
TUESDAY, JUNE 8
4:55 P.M.
STANGFEDLIS
MONDAY, AUGUST 23
3:02 A.M.
TO LOS ANGELES
MONDAY, AUGUST 23
1:04 P.M.
LOS ANGELES
MONDAY, AUGUST 23
4:09 P.M.
BEVERLY HILLS
TUESDAY, AUGUST 24
6:04 A.M.
CENTURY CITY
TUESDAY, AUGUST 24
8:45 A.M.
CULVER CITY
TUESDAY, AUGUST 24
10:30 A.M.
VANUTU TEAM
TUESDAY, AUGUST 24
11:00 A.M.
VANUTU TEAM
TUESDAY, AUGUST 24
12:04 P.M.
CULVER CITY
TUESDAY, AUGUST 24
12:15 P.M.
BEVERLY HILLS
TUESDAY, AUGUST 24
5:04 P.M.
CENTURY CITY
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 25
8:59 A.M.
VANCOUVER
THURSDAY, AUGUST 26
12:44 P.M.
CENTURY CITY
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
12:34 P.M.
BEVERLY HILLS
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 13
8:07 A.M.
CENTURY CITY
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
9:45 A.M.
TO SAN FRANCISCO
MONDAY, OCTOBER 4
1:38 P.M.
SAN FRANCISCO
MONDAY, OCTOBER 4
9:02 P.M.
POINT MOODY
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5
3:10 A.M.
TO LOS ANGELES
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5
12:02 P.M.
WEST LOS ANGELES
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5
3:04 P.M.
HOLMBY HILLS
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5
3:54 P.M.
BEVERLY HILLS
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5
4:45 P.M.
HOLMBY HILLS
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5
5:57 P.M.
HOLMBY HILLS
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5
8:03 P.M.
II. TERROR
TO PUNTA ARENAS
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 5
9:44 P.M.
TO PUNTA ARENAS
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6
3:01 A.M.
TO WEDDELL STATION
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6
8:04 A.M.
WEDDELL STATION
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6
11:04 A.M.
THE SHEAR ZONE
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6
12:09 P.M.
BREWSTER CAMP
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6
2:04 P.M.
TO WEDDELL STATION
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6
2:22 P.M.
SHEAR ZONE
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6
3:51 P.M.
SHEAR ZONE
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6
5:02 P.M.
WEDDELL STATION
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6
8:22 P.M.
WEDDELL STATION
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 7
7:34 P.M.
EN ROUTE
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8
6:04 A.M.
III. ANGEL
TO LOS ANGELES
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8
2:22 P.M.
TO LOS ANGELES
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8
3:27 P.M.
LOS ANGELES
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9
7:04 A.M.
CENTURY CITY
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 9
9:08 A.M.
LOS ANGELES
摘要：

*  Y.Choi,H.-S.Jung,K.-Y.Nam,andW.-T.Kwon,“AdjustingurbanbiasintheregionalmeansurfacetemperatureseriesofSouthKorea,1968–99,”InternationalJournalofClimatology23(2003):577–91.†  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2002/leicester_2002/2253636.stm.TheBBCgivesnoscientificreferencefortheeight-deg...

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